基于PLUS-InVEST模型的江苏省苏南地区生态系统服务功能时空演变及预测分析

[Objective]In order to analyze the effects of land use change on temporal and spatial changes of regional ecosystem service function,.[Method]This study took southern Jiangsu Province as the research object.Based on land use data,the InVEST model was used to study carbon storage and habitat quality during 2000-2020.The PLUS model was used to simulate the land use change under the natural development scenario,cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in the study area in 2030,and the impact of different land use policies on ecosystem service functions was analyzed.[Result]The results show that the land use change in southern Jiangsu from 2000 to 2020 is dominated by the encroachment of construction land into cultivated land and other land types,which will also lead to the degradation of habitat quality and the reduction of total carbon stocks.Among them,the areas with high carbon stocks and high habitat quality are located in the mountain forest land where human activities are not intensive,and the areas with low habitat quality and low carbon stocks radiate from the city centers.The results based on the PLUS model show that compared with the natural development scenario,the cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario can curb the expansion of construction land,reduce the loss of soil carbon storage and control the expansion of low-habitat area.[Conclusion]The research results can provide decision-making basis for planners.In the territorial spatial planning of southern Jiangsu,we can refer to the scenarios of cultivated land protection and ecological protection,strengthen cultivated land protection and forest protection,and carry out scientific and reasonable urban construction so as to promote high-quality and sustainable urban development.