基于FLUS InVEST模型的大庆市碳储量及热点区域分析
Analysis of carbon storage and hot spots in Daqing City based on the FLUS_InVEST model
[目的]以资源枯竭型城市大庆市域为研究区,探讨未来不同情景下土地覆盖变化对碳储量的影响并识别固碳能力热点区域,为未来城市转型提供政策建议。[方法]以 2010、2020年大庆市土地覆盖数据为基础,运用FLUS模型模拟 2030年自然演替情景、生态保护情景和城市发展情景土地覆盖格局,分析不同情景土地覆盖变化特征,结合InVEST模型中碳储模块估算 2010、2020和 2030年 3种情景碳储量及其分布,最后通过ArcGIS中热点分析工具,以 500设为阈值,根据Z值进行冷热区划分,识别固碳能力冷热点区域。[结果]2010-2020年,大庆市耕地、水体和人造地表面积增加,其余土地覆盖类型面积均减少,碳储量分别为 566.10×106t和 565.24×106t,10a间总碳储量减少了 0.86×106t,草地碳储量减少最多,占碳储总损失量的 79.03%;2030 年自然演替情景和城市发展情景土地覆盖变化与 2010-2020 年间相似,碳储量分别为564.08×106t、564.04×106t,相比 2020年分别减少了 1.16×106t、1.20×106t,均是草地减少的最多,分别占总损失量的 74.47%和 77.69%;生态保护情景下水体和人造地表处于减少状态,其余土地覆盖类型面积增加,总碳储量为 567.77×106t,10a间增加了 2.53×106t;草地和湿地向耕地面积转化,是导致碳储量损失的主要原因,生态保护情景碳储量主要贡献者是湿地,占总贡献量的 74.26%;自然演替情景二级热点区域主要分布在市域西北边界处,冷点区域分布面积是生态保护情景和城市发展情景的 2.93倍和 3.79倍,城市发展情景固碳能力热点区域与自然演替情景相似,但是冷点区域极少,生态保护情景一级热点区域主要分布在杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县,冷点区域主要分布在大庆市主城区中心部分。[结论]大庆市在生态保护情景下碳储量最高,固碳能力热点区域主要位于湿地分布地区,冷点区域主要分布在大庆市主城区中心部分,耕地的固碳能力不显著。实现大庆市城市转型应坚持退耕还林还草,加大还湿力度,具体可在杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县的连环湖地区开展湿地营建和保护工作,在主城区各分区交汇处增加绿色基础设施,并减少城市用地扩张。
[Objective]This study is aimed to explore the impact of land cover change on carbon storage and the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity under different scenarios in the future,and provide policy recommendations for future urban transformation,taking Daqing City,a resource-depleted city,as the research area.[Method]Based on the land cover data of Daqing in 2010 and 2020,the FLUS model was used to simulate the land cover pattern of natural succession scenario,ecological protection scenario,and urban development scenario in 2030,and the characteristics of land cover change in different scenarios were analyzed.In combination with the carbon storage module in InVEST model,carbon storage and its distribution in 2010,2020,and three scenarios in 2030 were estimated.Finally,the hot spot analysis tool in ArcGIS was used to set 500 as the threshold,and the cold and hot spots were divided according to the Z value to identify the cold and hot spots of carbon sequencing capacity.[Result]From 2010 to 2020,the area of cultivated land,water,and artificial surface increased,while the area of other land cover types decreased,carbon storage was 566.10×106t and 565.24×106t respectively.The total carbon storage decreased by 0.86×106t during the 10a period,and the carbon storage of grassland decreased the most,accounting for 79.03%of the total carbon storage loss.The land cover change of the natural succession scenario and urban development scenario in 2030 was similar to that of 2010-2020,and the carbon storage was 564.08×106t and 564.04×106t,respectively,which were reduced by 1.16×106t and 1.20×106t compared with 2020.Both of these were the largest reductions in grassland,accounting for 74.47%and 77.69%of the total loss,respectively.In the ecological protection scenario,the water and artificial land surface decreased,the area of other land cover types increased,and the total carbon storage was 567.77×106t,with an increase of 2.53×106t in the 10a period.The conversion of grassland and wetland to cultivated land was the main cause of carbon storage loss,and the main contributor of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenario was wetland,accounting for 74.26%of the total contribution.The second-level hot spots in the natural succession scenario were mainly distributed in the northwestern border of the city area,and the distribution area of the cold spots was 2.93 times and 3.79 times that of the ecological protection scenario and urban development scenario.The hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity in urban development scenario were similar to those in natural succession scenario,but there were very few cold spots.The hot spots of the ecological protection scenario were mainly distributed in Durbert Mongolian Autonomous County,and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City.[Conclusion]Daqing City has the highest carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario,the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity are mainly located in the wetland distribution area,the cold spots are mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City,and the carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land is not significant.To achieve the urban transformation of Daqing City,it should insist on returning farmland to forest and grass,and increase the efforts to restore moisture.Specifically,wetland construction and protection can be carried out in the Lianyuan Lake area of Durbert Mongolian Autonomous County,green infrastructure should be added at the interchanges of various districts in the main urban area,and urban land expansion should be reduced.
李雪;李文;
东北林业大学 园林学院 哈尔滨 150040;东北林业大学 园林学院 哈尔滨 150040;
Multi-Scenario simulation Carbon storage FLUS model Daqing City Hotspot analysis
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