中国林业劳动生产率的时空演化特征及影响因素解析——基于动态空间面板模型

[Objective]To investigate the spatio-temporal correlation patterns of forestry labor productivity in China,examine the factors influencing it and their spillover effects,and propose actionable measures to boost forestry labor productivity.[Method]Using panel data from 31 mainland Chinese provinces between 2010 and 2020,the study employs univariate and bivariate Moran indices to test the spatio-temporal correlation characteristics of regional forestry labor productivity.Based on the findings,four models are established and compared:no spatio-temporal effect,temporal effect,spatial effect,and spatio-temporal effect.Ultimately,a dynamic spatial panel model is selected to analyze the factors driving labor productivity and their spatio-temporal effects.[Result]1)There are cumulative circular time effects and positive spatio-temporal interaction effects on regional forestry labor productivity in China.2)The improvement of local forest land labor ratio,industrial agglomeration level,industrial structure optimization,labor remuneration,technological progress,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency have contributed to local forestry labor productivity,among which the contribution rates of forest land labor ratio and labor remuneration are the highest.3)The improvement of capital labor ratio and labor remuneration have negative spillover effects on neighboring forestry labor productivity,while the improvement of technological progress and scale efficiency have positive spillover effects.4)Except for the capital labor ratio,which is insignificant,the long-term effects of other factors are in the same direction as their short-term effects,and their average degree of influence is 2.368 times that of the short-term effects.[Conclusion]To improve forestry labor productivity,policymakers should consider the local effects and spatial spillover effects of each factor and carefully weigh the effects of various factors while taking into account the long-term effects of policy measures.